China Oilseed Production Falls

CHINA - Total market year (MY) 13/14 oilseed production is forecast at 54.9 million tons from a planted area of 24.7 million hectares (MHa), both down 0.5 per cent and 2.2 per cent from MY12/13, respectively. Rising consumer affluence is driving demand for animal and fish protein and consumption of vegetable oils.

In response, advancements in concentrated animal and aquatic production, growth in the feed industry and expansion in the crushing sector are spurring demand and need for imports to supply feed protein sources, such as soybeans and rapeseed.

Total oilseed imports in MY13/14 are forecast to reach 68.9 million tons from 66.1 million tons in MY12/13.

Specific MY13/14 forecasts for oilseed categories include:

Soybean production will fall four percent from last year to 12 million tons based on a stable planted area of 6.8 MHa and average yieldSoybean imports will rise six percent to 65.5 million tonsSoybean meal demand will rise three percent to 52.7 million tons in response to strong feed demandSoybean oil will rise 3.5 percent to 11.9 million tons due to increased crushRapeseed production will increase to 12.7 million tons based on a slight rise in planted area to 7.05 MHa, on average yieldRapeseed imports will increase slightly to 3 million tonsRapeseed meal imports forecast up slightly to 750,000 tonsRapeseed oil imports forecast at 1.15 million tonsPeanut production will stabilize at 16 million tons unchanged from MY12/13, based on a slight increase of planted area to 4.65 MHa and average yieldPeanut imports remain low at 30,000 tonsPeanut exports fall to 500,000 tonsCottonseed production will fall one million tons to 11.75 million tons due to an expected drop in overall cotton planted areaCottonseed imports will be driven by increased demand and diversified use and will reach 350,000 tons